U.A.E., Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Cut Rates

The Gulf Cooperation Council The United Arab Emirates decided to cut their bank repository rate by 0.25% to 5.25%; Saudi Arabia decreased its benchmark rate for deposits also by 0.25% to 4.0%; Qatar and Bahrain reduced their deposit rates by the same amount — 0.25% to 4.0%. Kuwait refrained from changing the country’s interest rate, because they’ve already removed their currency’s peg to dollar back in May 2007.

This rate change followed the cut by U.S. Federal Reserve decision to lower the rate from 4.50% to 4.25% yesterday on December 11. Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and U.A.E., started to peg their national currencies to dollar decades ago, and they have to maintain the similar interest rates to keep this peg up.

Lowering the interest rates goes against the general monetary policy of the Gulf countries in the way that it stimulates inflation, which is already very high due to the devalued dollar. Fighting inflation is an important task stated by the government of U.A.E. and this rate cut can only boost up the prices growth.

Although this step contradicts anti-inflation policy, it is almost doubtless that such a small rate change won’t hurt a lot. The possibly better side effect of this change would be another reason for consideration of the dollar peg abandonment by these oil countries.

This entry was posted on TopForexNews on Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 at 9:16 pm and is filed under Economic Indicators. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

U.A.E., Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Cut Rates

The Gulf Cooperation Council The United Arab Emirates decided to cut their bank repository rate by 0.25% to 5.25%; Saudi Arabia decreased its benchmark rate for deposits also by 0.25% to 4.0%; Qatar and Bahrain reduced their deposit rates by the same amount — 0.25% to 4.0%. Kuwait refrained from changing the country’s interest rate, because they’ve already removed their currency’s peg to dollar back in May 2007.

This rate change followed the cut by U.S. Federal Reserve decision to lower the rate from 4.50% to 4.25% yesterday on December 11. Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and U.A.E., started to peg their national currencies to dollar decades ago, and they have to maintain the similar interest rates to keep this peg up.

Lowering the interest rates goes against the general monetary policy of the Gulf countries in the way that it stimulates inflation, which is already very high due to the devalued dollar. Fighting inflation is an important task stated by the government of U.A.E. and this rate cut can only boost up the prices growth.

Although this step contradicts anti-inflation policy, it is almost doubtless that such a small rate change won’t hurt a lot. The possibly better side effect of this change would be another reason for consideration of the dollar peg abandonment by these oil countries.

This entry was posted on TopForexNews on Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 at 9:16 pm and is filed under Economic Indicators. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

O.K., Smart Guys: Fix the Energy Problem How should the U.S. solve its energy problems? The experts brainstorm

Norman Pearlstine, Thomas Kuhn, Bob Shapard, Carol Browner, Jigar Shah, and T. Boone Pickens Henry Leutwyler
This Week

August 1, 2011
Why the Debt Crisis Is Even Worse Than You Think

The U.S. first became a net importer of oil in 1948. The intervening decades have led Americans down a steady path of price spikes, shortages, and compromised foreign policy decisions. Imported fuel means expensive gasoline, lost jobs, and hobbled industries, while climate change poses risks as dramatic as they are difficult to assess. So how do we fix our fuel and energy problems? To answer that question—the first in a quarterly series called Fix This—Bloomberg Businessweek Chairman Norman Pearlstine gathered BP Capital Management’s T. Boone Pickens; Bob Shapard, chairman and chief executive officer of Oncor Electric Delivery and chairman of GridWise Alliance; Carol Browner, former director of the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy for President Obama and EPA administrator for President Clinton; Jigar Shah, CEO of the Carbon War Room; and Thomas Kuhn, president of Edison Electric Institute. Their conversation has been condensed and edited.


What do we mean when we talk about an energy crisis? Is that an appropriate term for framing this discussion?

Shah: The word energy is very confusing. Energy includes both transportation fuel—which I think people are very concerned about—and coal, solar, wind, and other things that produce electricity. People confuse the two, and while we have fast-rising prices of electricity—5 percent rate increases per year since 2000—the fourfold increase in oil prices since 1999 is a much bigger problem in terms of economics than our electricity problem.

Shapard: People perceive there to be a crisis in this country environmentally with carbon and other emissions. I think transportation is the place you go for the biggest impact, and I think it’s a combination of natural gas and electricity that can solve our transportation problem. You can convert a significant portion of our fleet to natural gas and/or electricity. It addresses our dependence on foreign oil, but just as importantly it addresses the environmental issues. While coal plants and power plants are viewed as the villain when it comes to carbon, [giving off] 39 percent of the emissions, 31 percent of the emissions are [from] cars, and the important point is we know the solution on cars.

Kuhn: Never in the history of the world have we been so dependent upon one commodity as we are on oil right now, and every recession has been preceded by a spike in the price of oil. A $10 increase in oil causes $75 billion to come out of this economy. There are a lot of electric cars that are going on the road all over the world, in India, China, and elsewhere. I drive a Chevy Volt. I haven’t visited a gas station in three months. I plug in, I drive at 2¢ a mile compared with 10¢ to 12¢ a mile—that’s about $1 a gallon equivalent.

Browner: One of the first things we did when [President] Obama came to office was set the first fuel-efficiency standards in almost 20 years. We said we can make cars more efficient, and that’s been making our automotive industry stronger.

Pickens: If you remember, President Obama, when he got the nomination, said in 10 years we will not import any oil from the Mideast. I was impressed with that. It’s different than all the other people that ran for President. They said elect me, and we’ll be energy independent. So I thought he’s got a plan, and I hope that he does have a plan.

If there’s a consensus here that we don’t have to be reliant on imported oil, why are we?

Browner: Some of these changes will require congressional action, because what we need to do is give the private sector the certainty and the predictability so that they’ll make the large-scale investments in these changes. They don’t want to start making investments where they think I’m going to build something but I’m not able to sell it.

Shah: Just to be slightly argumentative, I think we were in exactly the same place for both electricity and transportation in the 1970s. For electricity, we opened up that market. I started one of the largest solar companies in the U.S. We had that opportunity because we had net metering, we had streamlined interconnection standards, we had all sorts of ways for us to connect to the grid and actually provide [a new service to] customers who were dissatisfied with the services they were already being provided. Today if you own a gas station, you’re most likely under a franchise agreement with a large oil company that doesn’t allow you to add an alternative fuel station without their permission.

You talk to people in Washington all the time, Boone. Does anybody understand the problem well enough to know how to address it?

Pickens: Get yourself a crisis, and then something will come out of Congress. But we’re sitting here with a bill ready to go in the house, HR1380. [Editor’s note: HR1380 would amend the tax code to encourage investment in alternative energy.] There are 250 million vehicles in America: All I’m trying to address is 8 million 18-wheelers. Go to the past 10 years, and look at our costs with OPEC—$1 trillion in 10 years. The largest transfer of wealth from one group to another. Now go forward 10 years and take [the price of] $100 a barrel forward, which I think is being extremely conservative. That’s $2.2 trillion. Just take the 18-wheelers, that’s 2.5 million barrels a day. Now the $2.2 trillion that we’re going to pay 10 years in the future. … You cut OPEC in half with 8 million vehicles.

Browner: Between what Mr. Pickens has been talking about in terms of the long-haul vehicles and the commitment on electric cars, it would be a huge change in our fleet in this country.

Pickens: Don’t call me Mr. Pickens, O.K.? It makes me feel old when you do that.

Browner: Well, it’s respectful.

Is technology a place that can give us clean or cleaner coal or allow us to do more aggressive fracking for natural gas?

Browner: I personally think the natural gas industry needs to be fully transparent. What scares people is what they don’t know. Right now [fracking] is regulated differently in different states, and I think if the industry would join together and say we’re going to disclose exactly what we’re doing, we’re going to take a giant step forward.

On energy, we certainly know a lot of things that we could do very, very quickly. Energy efficiency is not complicated. There’s a nice little company in Washington, Opower, that works with utilities to send the customer an explanation of how much electricity they’re using in comparison to their neighbors, and you know what the effect of that is? People stop using as much electricity. They don’t want to be less efficient than their neighbors are, and they’re able to achieve a 1 percent to 3.5 percent reduction.

Shapard: If we could reduce electricity consumption by 10 percent, you’d save $25 billion a year in energy costs, you’d reduce CO₂ by about what you get in 10 percent electric vehicle penetration. The problem is people don’t know how to do it. Think about the way you buy electricity today. It’s like going to the grocery store, throwing groceries in your bag, walking out the front door, and once a month the grocer sends you a bill for $800. You didn’t break down eggs from milk from bacon. That’s the way you get electricity, just a big lump bill. If we can give you real-time feedback, studies have shown you’ll use less, you’ll use it smarter.

Shah: I love Opower, but ultimately energy efficiency through individual action is just people spending money out of their own pocket. [It] hasn’t worked for 35 years. I really don’t believe it.

Browner: People make wise decisions when they have access to information. Do you know what percentage of people now use a seat belt? It’s over 90 percent.

Shah: But it’s mandated. There’s a law.

Browner: We got there by educating people.

When we talk about the automotive industry, is the change going to come out of Detroit?

Browner: It’s going to come through the regulators. What regulations do is they create market opportunities for the capital investments, because they create predictability and certainty. When the President said all cars are going to be 35 miles per gallon for the average fleet by 2017, the automotive industry knew what kind of investments they needed to make.

Shah: Here’s one thing that we don’t have in transportation, which I think is critical: There is almost no way in hell that you’re going to get an entrepreneur into transportation. There’s at least 15 different engine technologies that have been invented since the 1960s, but only someone with 50 full-time regulatory affairs people can actually get through the National Transportation Safety Board, through all the EPA regulations, and all of the other things to actually bring a new car to market. Like the group that won the X Prize, right? That’s an actual gasoline-powered vehicle that goes 120 miles to the gallon, and it’s an extraordinary engineering feat. I guarantee you that thing is never going to come to market.

What can we look to that can change the equation in terms of electric vehicles?

Kuhn: Battery technology is making major advancements. Lithium ion batteries [are] coming from a lot of government-supported research with the automobile companies and other companies around the world.

Pickens: Well, don’t end up on a Chinese battery.

Shapard: Even the auto companies are telling us that within five years the price of these batteries could drop in half and the functionality grow.

Shah: But the beauty of the electric vehicle is the business model innovation. There [are] 17 things that you can do that I’ve counted, and you might be able to do more, with an electric battery as an electric utility. The grid’s got to stay at 60 hertz to keep everything running well, and you can use batteries to do this instead of spending reserves with natural gas, which is far more expensive.

Browner: So what you’re saying is when I’m not driving, my car would become part of the electric utility system?

Shah: In California their peak demand for electricity is roughly 60,000 megawatts. If you have 250,000 electric cars, just 250,000 out of 30 million cars they probably have over there, at 20 kilowatts a piece, which is what a lot of these full electric cars are, that’s 5,000Mw. So you now have one-twelfth of the entire grid of storage.

The problem is people go to the dealership and will never buy an electric vehicle. So what you have to do, and entrepreneurs are doing this now, is convert these into vehicle services contracts. You say here’s a free car, just pay me $400 a month, which is what you would have paid for your lease payment, and I’ll get the $4,000 a year out of the utility because you don’t want to deal with the paperwork.

Japan and China boosting foreign investment in Thailand

JUNE 20, 2011BORIS SULLIVAN

Thailand’s Board of Investment reports a 5-month investment value of more than Bt200 billion ($6.6 billon), thanks to Investment from Japan and China boosting foreign investment growth to 64%. Total investment in the first five months of this year has already surpassed Bt200 billion, with 725 new project applications with total investment value of Bt208 billion. This amount accounts for more than half of the total target for the entire year 2011 of Bt400 billion. Foreign investment grew by 64 per cent while investment by SMEs expanded by 525 per cent.

Dr. Atchaka Sibunruang, Secretary General of the Board of Investment, disclosed that at the BOI board meeting chaired by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the BOI reported the successful five-month investment record. From January through May 2011, investment in Thailand expanded in terms of both the number of projects and investment value. Investment applications included 725 projects with a total value of Bt208 billion, representing more than half of the entire year’s target of at least Bt400 billion.

China is the second largest investor with Bt20.5 billion in investment value, accounting for 15 per cent of the total FDI. One of the major projects is a Bt19 billion car tire production project.

Considered in terms of the number of investment projects, this year growth was 51 per cent greater than the same period last year (480 projects). Investment value increased by 25 per cent year-on-year against Bt166 billion in 2010.

The most attractive businesses have been in the metal, machinery and transport equipment industries, which attracted 184 projects with a total investment of Bt63 billion. The second most attractive sectors have been service and infrastructure, with 154 projects and a Bt42 billion investment value. Following these were chemical products, paper and plastics (99 projects, Bt37 billion), and electronics and electrical appliances (108 projects, Bt28 billion), respectively.

“A positive investment trend has been strong since the beginning of this year,” said Dr. Sibunruang. “In addition to enhancing confidence in Thailand as an investment hub, the government’s policy to promote target industries has also been given a strong welcome by investors. The terms of the policy include, for example, promotion for business operators investing in upgrading production machinery to achieve better energy saving and less environmental impact.

At present many businesses have responded to the policy, and total investment under this measure was more than Bt2.416 billion. Another policy is to include more businesses and to improve investment incentive conditions for SMEs. It has already attracted 92 projects, an increase of 178 per cent over 2010, while investment value grew by 525 per cent to Bt3.709 billion as compared with Bt593 million last year.”

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has also shown a positive trend. In the past five months, BOI has received applications from 431 projects with a total Bt141.196 billion investment value. Japanese investors are the most important in terms of number of projects and investment value.

A total of 221 projects from Japanese investors, with a Bt57.438 billion investment value, have applied for investment incentives from the BOI. This represents a 77 per cent growth over last year and accounted for 41 per cent of total foreign investment during the first five months of this year. Most of the investment was in automotive and electronic part production projects.

China is the second largest investor with Bt20.5 billion in investment value, accounting for 15 per cent of the total FDI. One of the major projects is a Bt19 billion car tire production project.

Investment from the United States ranked third. Despite its total value of only Bt3.373 billion during the first five months of the year, the US also invested Bt3.191billion in a mining equipment and machinery production project, and Bt4.372 billion in a backhoe production project, through Singaporean companies. The aggregated Bt10.936 billion investment value has placed the US third on the list.

Investment from Singapore was Bt10.3 billion, accounting for 7 per cent of the total FDI. Major investment projects are integrated circuits, machinery and equipment production.

Total investment from Hong Kong was Bt10.096 billion, or 7 per cent of the FDI. Major projects are black liquor electricity generating, amusement park, and hotel projects.

New York to Open Gay-Marriage Era as Lottery Winners Celebrate

July 22, 2011, 4:54 PM EDT
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By Esmé E. Deprez

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Two grooms and two brides now adorn mugs, rubber duckies and snow globes in the souvenir shop of the City Clerk’s office in Manhattan as New York state prepares to allow same-sex couples to marry.

The city received 823 lottery entries from couples for 764 spots available for marriage at clerks’ offices July 24, said Marc LaVorgna, a spokesman for Mayor Michael Bloomberg. To accommodate all of the couples who applied, the city increased the number of slots in Manhattan to 459 from 400, he said.

Jo-Ann Shain and Mary Jo Kennedy of Brooklyn, who have been together 29 years, entered the 48-hour lottery after it was announced on July 19.

“At first we thought maybe it will be crazy, that it’ll be a zoo,” Shain, a 58-year old freelance medical editor, said in a telephone interview. “Then it occurred to us that we’ve waited so long, have fought so hard, it would be crazy not to be there on such a historic day.”

Shain said the couple plans to be married by a friend, who is a judge, outside the Manhattan clerk’s office as their 22- year old daughter, Aliya, looks on.

With 19.4 million residents, New York is the sixth and most populous U.S. state to grant same-sex couples the right to wed, a move championed by Governor Andrew Cuomo and approved by the Legislature in Albany on June 24, the last day of its session. The victory for gay-rights advocates, which made headlines around the world, more than doubled the number of Americans free to marry either gender to 35 million.

Record Day

The couples to be wed July 24 will mark the city’s most in one day, Bloomberg said this week. The previous record was set on Valentine’s Day in 2003, when 621 couples tied the knot.

As of yesterday, 3,145 couples had preregistered for marriage licenses, said Mark Botnick, a spokesman for the mayor. Of that, about 2,200 are estimated to be same-sex couples, he said.

Clerks’ offices in all five boroughs, which are normally closed on Sunday, will open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. at an additional estimated cost of $70,000, Botnick said. About 60 judges have volunteered to perform ceremonies, he said. The offices will remain open for two extra hours next week to handle the expected flood.

Three-Step Process

The Albany clerk’s office will provide licenses beginning at 12:01 a.m. on Sunday to 10 couples, according to the Empire State Pride Agenda. Clerks in Binghamton, Brighton, Brookhaven, Buffalo, Greenburgh, Ithaca, Niagara, North Hempstead, Oneonta, Rochester, Syracuse and Woodstock will also hold Sunday office hours, the Manhattan-based gay advocacy organization said.

All couples -- gay or straight -- face a three-step process to get married. They must obtain from a clerk a $35 marriage license, for which they can apply online or on site. Judges will be on hand to grant judicial waivers eliminating the state’s 24- hour waiting period. Couples may then have a clerk perform a civil marriage for $25 or hold a religious ceremony at another location.

Same-sex marriages in New York will be recognized in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and Washington, D.C., where the practice is legal, as well as in Maryland and Rhode Island, according to the mayor’s office.

Debate began at a U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee meeting on July 20 on the proposed Respect for Marriage Act, which would let the federal government extend benefits such as Social Security and health-insurance coverage to same-sex married couples. It would end the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which bans recognition of those unions. The proposal wouldn’t require states to legalize same-sex marriages.

Rabbi to Preside

Rabbi Sharon Kleinbaum of the Congregation Beth Simchat Torah in Manhattan’s Greenwich Village will marry people outside the Manhattan clerk’s office starting at 8:30 a.m. July 24. About 80 couples have signed up, with the final count depending on how many win the lottery, said Gabriel Blau, a congregation spokesman.

When Kleinbaum went to lobby for the marriage law’s passage in Albany, people pushed her and spat at her and said, “You are not a Jew,” Blau said.

Bloomberg plans to perform a marriage for John Feinblatt, his chief policy adviser, and Jonathan Mintz, the city’s commissioner for consumer affairs, at Gracie Mansion on July 24. The couple is the sole exception to the lottery.

The mayor is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent company Bloomberg LP.

--With assistance from Sarah Frier in New York and Victoria Pelham in Washington. Editors: Mark Schoifet, Stephen Merelman

To contact the reporter on this story: Esmé E. Deprez in New York at edeprez@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Tannenbaum at mtannen@bloomberg.net


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-07-22/new-york-to-open-gay-marriage-era-as-lottery-winners-celebrate.html

Management Tips from an 80-Year-Old Badass

Florida Marlins skipper Jack McKeon may not Twitter, but so what? This octogenarian knows his baseball and runs a tight ship

By Joel Stein

Illustration by John Ueland; McKeon: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images; Field: Nick Laham/Getty Images

Not wearing a hearing aid is one of the many tricks Jack McKeon has learned during his six decades in baseball. “I used to be a very strong disciplinarian,” says McKeon, sitting in the Oakland Coliseum one recent afternoon as his players take batting practice. “Then I decided to back off a little bit. I don’t use the hearing aids because I don’t want to see a lot of things, and I don’t want to hear a lot of things.”

It may be too late for that. McKeon took over the last-place Florida Marlins on June 20, the day after then-manager Edwin Rodríguez quit. While Rodríguez wanted the Marlins to offer him a long-term contract, McKeon didn’t exactly need one. The 80-year-old’s appointment is almost without precedent in pro sports. In 2003 the Marlins hired a 72-year-old to take over a club filled with young, inexperienced players. That year, McKeon’s Marlins beat the New York Yankees in the World Series. Still, hiring a bona fide octogenarian is even harder to believe. The odds of McKeon winning the World Series this year (1 in 75, according to Vegas.com) are longer than the odds of him dying this year (1 in 15.5, according to Social Security’s actuarial tables).

While there are at least a dozen chief executive officers even older than McKeon—Hong Kong-based Run Run Shaw is, somewhat inexplicably, both a media mogul and 103 years old—none of them is running an outfit of men largely in their early 20s. Yet this management challenge doesn’t faze McKeon. “I got nine grandchildren, I’m in tune with what’s going on,” he says. “Maybe I’m not about to put my personal stuff on Facebook and all that crap, like the video stuff, whatever the hell they call it,” he explains, moving his thumbs as if he’s using a video-game console.

He doesn’t follow his players on Twitter, either. Marlins right fielder Logan Morrison recently posted, “McKeon asked me what I had going on tonite. Told him I was going home 2 play w/ Twitter. He replied ‘oh, what kind of dog is it?’ ” When I ask McKeon if he wants me to show him what his players are tweeting, he says: “No. I don’t care what they say. What do they say?” Then I show him Morrison’s tweets about his recent visit to Twitter headquarters, and McKeon makes a grumpy face. “I just want them to concentrate on baseball 100 percent once they enter that clubhouse. If he goes down to the minor leagues, he ain’t going to have any Twitter friends.”

Although affable, McKeon is known as a tough manager. During his first game this season, he benched his best player, shortstop Hanley Ramirez, for tardiness. He also pulled pitcher Randy Choate in the middle of a count. (“I’ve never had that happen before,” says Choate. “It worked.”) When he told his players they couldn’t hang out in the clubhouse during games, they knew he was serious; in 2003, McKeon locked the clubhouse doors and required players to hand him bathroom passes when they couldn’t hold it in any longer. He may be the only 80-year-old man who is willing and able to go three hours without peeing.

It’s taken McKeon decades to hone this management approach. “When you first start managing, you want the players to like you—so you let a lot of things slide,” he says. “You feel like these are veteran players and you need them on your side to help you.” However, McKeon eventually came to realize that “it doesn’t work that way. So when I come in, I try to establish me.” He’s learned that the best way to get personnel to buy into his detail-oriented program is by loosening them up—and playing to his own strengths. These days, one of McKeon’s signature bits is to call his players by the wrong name. When I ask him if this is really a bit, or if he actually has trouble telling Gaby Sanchez apart from Anibal Sanchez, he pauses and thinks. “They think, ‘He’s old. He forgot my name.’ So, s–t, I just go along with it.”

Britain’s Second-Quarter Economic Growth Probably Eased to 0.2%

July 23, 2011, 6:32 AM EDT
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By Fergal O’Brien and Mark Evans

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Britain’s second-quarter economic growth probably slowed as weak consumer spending continued to restrain the recovery, economists said.

Gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent compared with a 0.5 percent increase in the first quarter, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Office for National Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. on July 26 in London.

Output was hit in the second quarter by supply disruptions stemming from the earthquake in Japan, while plants shut down and workers booked vacations to take advantage of consecutive four-day weekends in April to mark Easter and the royal wedding. Bank of England policy makers left their benchmark interest rate at a record low this month and warned that the current economic weakness may persist “for longer than previously thought.”

“The economy is likely to have eked out marginal growth at best in the second quarter, and there is a very real danger that it could have contracted modestly,” said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London, who forecasts 0.1 percent growth. “Activity clearly took a significant hit in April from the extra public holiday, but the softness of the economy runs deeper than this.”

Manufacturing growth slowed in June, while expansion among services companies remained “below trend,” Markit Economics Ltd. said in reports this month. Consumer confidence fell as Britons grew more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, Nationwide Building Society said on July 21.

Demand is being hit by government spending cuts while high inflation is eroding household incomes at the fastest pace since the 1970s. The economy has effectively stagnated since September, with the first quarter’s growth leaving the level of GDP no higher than it was in the third quarter of last year.

Four of the economists surveyed forecast a contraction in the second quarter, with Hetal Mehta at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. projecting a 0.3 percent drop in GDP. At the other end of the range is Azad Zangana at Schroders Plc, with a forecast for growth of 0.4 percent.

--Editors: Andrew Atkinson, Eddie Buckle

To contact the reporters on this story: Fergal O’Brien in London at fobrien@bloomberg.net; Mark Evans in London at mevans8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net

Man Charged in Deadliest Norway Attacks Since World War II

July 23, 2011, 6:10 AM EDT
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By Josiane Kremer and Stephen Treloar

(Adds Clinton comment in 13th paragraph.)

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Twin attacks in Norway, the deadliest since World War II, left 91 people dead after a gunman killed 84 people at a youth camp on an island near Oslo and a bomb explosion in the center of the capital killed seven people.

A 32-year-old Norwegian man was arrested on the island of Utoeya, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from Oslo, and authorities have begun interrogating the suspect, police said at a press briefing today. The same person is likely behind the bombing and the shootings on the island, they said. The suspect’s name is Anders Behring Breivik, local media reported. Police declined to confirm the suspect’s name.

The man has been charged on two counts of “dangerous crime to society,” which means he could be sentenced to 21 years in prison, Norway’s toughest punishment, Roger Andresen, deputy Oslo police chief, told reporters today. The man is a Christian fundamentalist with right-wing tendencies, Andresen said.

The blast in central Oslo shattered windows at the office of Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg. Hundreds of youths were attending the camp organized by the youth wing of Stoltenberg’s Labor Party.

“Not since World War II has our country experienced a greater tragedy,” Stoltenberg said in a speech today. “For me, Utoeya was the paradise island of my youth that was transformed into hell.”

“The search may take a while as the island has a number of buildings and forested areas,” Anders Frydenberg, a spokesman for Oslo police, said by telephone today. He declined to say whether police believe the shooting was carried out by a single gunman or multiple people and declined to comment on the motives for the attack.

Man in Custody

“The police are not going to confirm his name,” Frydenberg said. “We have a man in custody and are asking him questions about shooting episodes at the island. We are still talking to him.”

Police “see a connection between the attack in Oslo center and the attack on the island because both attacks are at political sites in Norway,” he said. “The bomb blast in Oslo center was toward government buildings, which are being ruled by the Labor party. The youth camp was a Labor party youth camp. That’s the connection between the two attacks.”

Stoltenberg, called the attack on his office “cowardly” and said it wouldn’t interrupt government functioning. Stoltenberg was due to appear today at the youth gathering on Utoeya, Sponheim said. The suspected shooter, who wore a police uniform, wasn’t a police officer, he said.

‘A Lot Unclear’

Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said he contacted Stoltenberg to convey his condolences. “From a Swedish perspective, we’re following the ongoing development,” he said. “There is still a lot that is unclear about what has happened.”

Neighboring Sweden had a brush with what police treated as a possible terrorist attack in December when a suicide bomber injured two people in central Stockholm.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen sent a statement conveying his “deepest sympathy and solidarity” with the Norwegian people. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague described the bombing in a press release as “horrific.” China, Australia and New Zealand condemned the attack and expressed their condolences.

‘Peaceful People’

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton broke away from her prepared remarks at an entrepreneurship event in Bali, Indonesia, to express sympathy.

“This tragedy strikes right at the heart and soul of a peaceful people,” the top U.S. Diplomat said. “Norway is well known for its efforts to resolve conflict and bring people together.”

Before the explosion, a car drove into the government quarter, the police said in a statement. No government ministers were hurt, Stoltenberg told broadcaster NRK.

Eirik Borg, a back office worker at stockbrokerage Fearnley Fonds based near the scene, said he saw smoke billowing from the government quarter after hearing the blast.

‘Hard Impact’

“We felt the impact very hard throughout the building,” Borg said in a phone interview. “All the windows were breaking and we actually thought lightning hit our roof. From our terrace, we saw white smoke.”

The bombing initially sent Norway’s currency and stocks lower. The krone weakened as much as 1 percent against the dollar and was trading 0.4 percent lower at 8:30 p.m. local time yesterday. Against the euro, the krone was little changed at 7.7851 after losing as much as 0.4 percent. The benchmark OBX stock index fell as much as 0.4 percent before closing little changed.

“Large sections of the center of Oslo have been evacuated and the police are urging people to stay away from the center of the city and limit their use of mobile phones,” police said in a statement. Sponheim said police don’t expect further blasts.

The country’s Ministry of Petroleum suffered “massive damage” as a consequence of the blast, spokesman Haakon Smith- Isaksen said by phone. Norway is the world’s seventh-largest oil exporter.

“There was a huge explosion, the windows just blew out,” Smith-Isaken said. “There is much debris, people are injured.”

--With assistance from Frances Schwartzkopff in Copenhagen, Kati Pohjanpalo and Diana ben-Aaron in Helsinki, Ola Kinnander, Johan Carlstrom, Adam Ewing, Kim McLaughlin and Toby Alder in Stockholm. Editors: Chad Thomas, Marianne Stigset

To contact the reporters on this story: Josiane Kremer in Oslo at jkremer4@bloomberg.net; Stephen Treloar in Oslo at streloar1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net

Obama Deal With Boehner Upset by Last-Minute ‘Gang of Six’ Plan

July 23, 2011, 1:45 AM EDT
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By Julie Hirschfeld Davis

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama, running out of time to strike a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, had some bad news for House Speaker John Boehner on July 20.

The tax overhaul they had been discussing to raise $800 billion in revenue over a decade had to be bigger, Obama told Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor during an evening meeting in the Oval Office. Obama’s new offer: $1.2 trillion.

A new proposal by the “Gang of Six,” a bipartisan group of senators who were calling for $3.7 trillion in budget savings over 10 years to slash the deficit, had changed the dynamics of the accord that Obama and Boehner had been negotiating in closed-door talks for weeks, the president told the speaker.

The group, praised by both senior Republicans and Democrats for its mix of spending cuts and tax increases, proposed a bigger revenue target than Obama and Boehner were considering, according to officials on Capitol Hill and at the White House who gave their accounts of the talks on condition of anonymity.

And Obama, who had called for months for the sort of grand bargain the gang was offering, was going to have a hard time selling a deal that stopped short of that.

The turnabout ultimately led Boehner to walk out of the talks, he said last night, unraveling the progress that had been made toward a sweeping compromise to slice $3.5 trillion from the nation’s debt and raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling before a default threatened Aug. 2.

Back to Beginning

The breakdown sent both sides back to the beginning with little room left to reach a deal to boost the nation’s borrowing authority in time to head off the default. Congressional leaders from both parties are to meet today at the White House in an effort to reach an accord.

“It’s the president who walked away from his agreement and demanded more money at the last minute,” Boehner, of Ohio, told reporters at an evening news conference on Capitol Hill, hours after calling Obama to tell him he was abandoning their negotiations. “Dealing with the White House is like dealing with a bowl of jello.”

It was the final breakdown in the private negotiations between Obama and Boehner over a politically challenging debt- reduction agreement both were eager to reach.

“We had very intense negotiations,” Obama said last night. “I’ve been left at the altar now a couple of times.”

The courtship began June 18, when Obama, 49, invited Boehner, 61, for a round of golf at Andrews Air Force Base. The two teamed up against Vice President Joe Biden, who was spearheading bipartisan talks on the deficit with congressional leaders, and Ohio Governor John Kasich, a friend of Boehner’s.

Bonding Session

More bonding session than policy debate, the president and the speaker beat Kasich and Biden, winning $2 each. Still, the golf date proved a turning point, spurring Obama and Boehner to begin one-on-one talks on a broad compromise. Four days later, Boehner was at the White House meeting privately with Obama to sketch out what the deal could look like.

The following day, Cantor, a Virginia Republican who has cultivated a close relationship with Tea Party-backed lawmakers leading the call for spending cuts, abandoned the bipartisan Biden-led talks after a half-dozen meetings. He said Democrats’ insistence on raising taxes made an agreement impossible. The group had been making slow but steady progress, identifying more than $1 trillion in spending cuts the two parties could agree on.

The following week, Obama held a news conference in which he accused Republicans of siding with corporate-jet owners over children and the elderly in the negotiations, and compared Congress’s work ethic unfavorably with that of his pre-teen daughters.

Dire Consequences

“The yellow light is flashing,” Obama said during the June 30 news conference, warning of dire consequences if Congress didn’t raise the borrowing limit before Aug. 2. Standard & Poor’s said it would downgrade U.S. debt to junk status in the event of a default, and the Senate canceled its July 4 recess to continue talking.

The following Sunday, July 3, Boehner and Obama met secretly at the White House to continue their talks. Enough progress was made that Obama appeared at a White House briefing on July 5 to say the nation had “a unique opportunity to do something big to tackle our deficit,” and announce he was summoning congressional leaders from both parties for talks at the White House July 7.

At the roughly 90-minute meeting, Obama polled congressional leaders about what kind of deal they were seeking -- a limited one of between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion over a decade, a medium-size agreement yielding about $3 trillion, or a big deal to cut $4 trillion off the debt.

Obama and Boehner both wanted to go big.

‘No Imminent Deal’

Still, Boehner -- cognizant of intense opposition among Republicans to any agreement that raised taxes -- cautioned that there was “no imminent deal about to happen,” saying there remained “serious disagreements.”

“We are this far apart,” Boehner told reporters, spreading his arms to indicate the gulf between himself and the president. Yet behind the scenes, his staff and Obama’s were beginning to exchange paper on the contours of a compromise to bridge that divide.

The White House was willing to consider major changes to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, including benefit cuts, that had previously been considered off-limits. Boehner was willing to discuss a tax overhaul that would raise revenue, until then dismissed by the Republicans as a tax increase.

Boehner’s aides, including Chief of Staff Barry Jackson and Policy Director Brett Loper, were haggling with Obama’s budget director Jack Lew and legislative liaison Rob Nabors on the details. Resistance was brewing in both parties to such a deal.

Pelosi Displeased

Meeting at the White House with Obama on July 8, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California vented her displeasure about the prospect of including Social Security and Medicare cuts in any deal, and told him such a package wouldn’t garner support among congressional Democrats.

On Capitol Hill, Boehner and other House leaders held a press conference to reiterate their opposition to tax increases. Still, negotiations continued into Saturday morning July 9, when a round of negotiating among Boehner’s and Obama’s aides yielded little progress in breaking remaining stalemates over details of the tax rewrite and entitlement cuts.

Later that day, Boehner phoned the president at Camp David to tell him he was pulling the plug on a broad deal and would seek a more limited measure.

“Despite good-faith efforts to find common ground, the White House will not pursue a bigger debt-reduction agreement without tax hikes,” Boehner said in a statement after the call.

No Stopgap Deal

Obama was still pressing for a broad agreement. He called a news conference on July 11 in which he ruled out the idea of signing a stopgap debt-limit boost and argued that the time was ripe for a major compromise to reduce the debt, whatever the political difficulties.

“We might as well do it now -- pull off the Band-Aid, eat our peas,” he said.

That didn’t stop Republican resistance. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky proposed a fallback plan on July 12 -- a “last choice” option, he called it -- that would allow Obama to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling $2.4 trillion in installments, requiring that the president lay out the same amount of spending cuts and giving Republicans several opportunities to vote “no.”

At the close of a White House meeting July 13, Cantor pressed Obama about a shorter-term debt measure, prompting a testy response from the usually low-key president.

More Than Reagan

Leaning back from the table, Obama told Cantor that he’d been personally negotiating the details of the debt deal for weeks -- more than Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush would have done -- because he wanted to reach a deal that was important for the country. If Republicans sent him legislation he couldn’t accept, he’d veto it and take it to the American people, Obama said before closing the meeting.

Republicans announced they would move forward the next week with legislation that would slash spending, cap future expenditures, and condition a $2.4 trillion debt-ceiling increase on passage of a balanced budget constitutional amendment. Behind the scenes, though, Boehner and Cantor began serious talks with Obama’s staff on a major compromise.

The House Republicans invited Obama’s chief of staff Bill Daley and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to Boehner’s Capitol office suite on July 15 for a quiet meeting on a framework for a tax overhaul, according to House Republican leadership aides.

Cutting Medicare

Over coffee and bagels at the White House July 17, with Obama popping in periodically to check their progress, the four negotiators, now joined by Lew, moved toward a deal to slash discretionary spending by $1.2 trillion over a decade and set a process for overhauling entitlements and the tax code within six to eight months to save trillions more.

The White House would agree to cut $250 billion from Medicare and trim Social Security benefits through a change in the way their annual increase is calculated. Republicans would agree to a tax rewrite that would raise no more than $800 billion while lowering rates, a number blessed by Geithner, the Republican aides said.

The two sides remained divided over key details, including an enforcement mechanism to ensure the entitlement and tax targets were met. The White House rejected the Republicans’ idea that future borrowing authority be conditioned on achieving the goals, and Republicans opposed Obama’s insistence on raising taxes on high earners while keeping them at the same level for the middle class in the event the promised debt savings didn’t materialize, the aides said.

‘Grand Bargain’

On July 19, as Boehner’s staff awaited a counterproposal from Obama’s aides, Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia and Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, co-leaders of the Gang of Six, stood before about 50 senators in an ornate room on the first floor of the Capitol and pitched their long- awaited “grand bargain.” Obama made a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room to commend the outline, and Treasuries rallied on expectations of a long-term debt-reduction deal.

The president’s team told Boehner’s that their bottom line had changed based on the framework, a message Obama delivered to the speaker in person the next day at the White House, the Republican aides said. An administration official said the senators’ plan had changed the political dynamics in the push for a deal, making it harder to attract Democratic support for a proposal with a smaller revenue increase.

Obama Rebuffed

Still, Obama had no inkling Boehner was abandoning the talks until he began having trouble getting the speaker on the phone and Jackson stopped returning e-mails beginning the evening of July 21. Boehner’s office informed the president on July 22 at about 3:30 p.m. that the speaker would call Obama in two hours. Obama said he wanted to talk to Boehner right then and was rebuffed, administration officials told reporters.

The call came in as scheduled, not long after House Republican leadership aides finished briefing reporters about Boehner’s decision.

“Up until sometime early today when I couldn’t get a phone call returned, my expectation was that Speaker Boehner was going to be willing to go to his caucus and ask them to do the tough thing, but the right thing. I think it has proven difficult for Speaker Boehner,” Obama said at the White House.

“In the end,” Boehner wrote in a letter to Republican lawmakers detailing his decision, “we couldn’t connect.”

--With assistance from Mike Dorning, Kate Andersen Brower and Laura Litvan. Editors: Robin Meszoly, Mark McQuillan

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at Jdavis159@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva@bloomberg.net

Clinton Warns S. China Sea Spats Threaten Asia Peace, Trade

July 23, 2011, 1:12 AM EDT
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By Daniel Ten Kate and Nicole Gaouette

(Adds comments from State Department official in sixth paragraph.)

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned today that escalating tensions in the South China Sea risk disrupting trade flows and called on Asian countries to clarify territorial claims.

“The United States is concerned that recent incidents in the South China Sea threaten the peace and stability on which the remarkable progress of the Asia-Pacific region has been built,” Clinton told a regional security forum in Bali, Indonesia. “These incidents endanger the safety of life at sea, escalate tensions, undermine freedom of navigation, and pose risks to lawful unimpeded commerce.”

Clinton commended China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations for agreeing to guidelines for joint activities in the waters last week and urged them to accelerate a legally binding code of conduct. She called on countries to “exercise self-restraint” and avoid occupying uninhabited islands in the disputed waters.

The U.S.’s alliance with the Philippines and naval power in the Asia-Pacific has led to tensions with China, which claims most of the South China Sea as its own. The Philippines and Vietnam have pushed ahead with oil and gas exploration over objections from China, which has used patrol boats to disrupt hydrocarbon survey activities in disputed waters.

‘Clarify Claims’

Clinton called on the countries “to clarify their claims in the South China Sea in terms consistent with customary international law, including as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention,” Clinton said, according to prepared remarks that were given to reporters. “Consistent with international law, claims to maritime space in the South China Sea should be derived solely from legitimate claims to land features.”

Clinton is asking states to lay out their claims very clearly and unambiguously and to explain the legal basis for them, said a State Department official present for meetings on the South China Sea. That will force countries to look carefully at their approach, especially given that almost all claims to the waters are exaggerated, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The U.S. has not ratified the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention.

‘Nine-Dash Map’

China last week rejected an attempt by the Philippines to have the UN’s International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea decide on the territorial dispute. The Philippines plans to ask another UN arbitration panel to demarcate disputed areas of the sea “to prove our claim,” Foreign Secretary Albert F. del Rosario said on July 20.

Along with the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia have released statements to the UN saying China’s “nine-dash map” of the waters has no basis in international law.

China says its claims “are supported by abundant historical and legal evidence,” according to an April submission to the UN. It said the Philippines “started to invade and occupy” its islands in the 1970s.

Chinese ships cut survey cables of Vietnam Oil & Gas Group vessels twice in the past few months and in March chased away a boat working for U.K.-based Forum Energy Plc that was surveying the area. A Chinese frigate fired warning shots at Philippine trawlers on Feb. 25.

China’s actions in the waters provoked protests in Hanoi over the past month and prompted a group of Filipino lawmakers to travel last week to the disputed Spratly Islands, which are also claimed by Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam and China. All those countries except Brunei have troops stationed in the area.

“We believe that it’s important to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China,” Liu Weimin, spokesman for Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, told reporters yesterday after his meeting with Clinton. “I sense that the U.S. side understands the sensitivities of these issues.”

--Editor: Ben Richardson, Jim McDonald

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bali at dtenkate@bloomberg.net; Nicole Gaouette in Bali at ngaouette@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Tighe at ptighe@bloomberg.net

Thailand’s minimum wage increase raises concern

    July 17, 2011
    Boris Sullivan

The private sector has expressed its concern over the plan of the new Pheu Thai-led government to raise minimum wage to 300 baht per day across the country, saying that the measure will prompt an increase of 140 billion baht a year to the capital labor cost.

Thai Chamber of Commerce TCC Vice-Chairperson Pongsak Assakul said the domestic private sector and a number of foreign investors have already been worried about the huge impact from the upcoming government’s policy on the production cost.
hundreds baht banknote

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day



Mr Pongsak viewed that small and medium businesses are likely to receive impacts the most. He suggested that the government enforce assistance packages in order to alleviate the consequences if it really wants to forge ahead with the minimum wage adjustment.

Apart from the aforementioned impact, it is worrying that Thai and foreign investors might shift their production base here to other countries which offer lower wages but have similar investment climate.

Nevertheless, the TCC vice-president stressed that the Thai business sector is ready to work and discuss with the new government closely for long-term benefits of the country.

via Private sector worrying about minimum wage rise : National News Bureau of Thailand.

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day and starting a  minimum salary for new graduates from Bt15,000 per month, campaign promises which are believed to have drawn a large number of votes for the party in Sunday’s election.

Mr Jarupong said the Pheu Thai-led government will raise the minimum salary per month to Bt15,000 $500 for civil servants and state enterprise employees this October, while a minimum daily wage hike is expected to begin in January 2012, as the government must talks with the private sector first.

The wage increase will be put into effect after the government creates better understanding on the matter with the private sector and finds appropriate solutions for them such as a corporate income tax reduction and provision of new export markets, according to Mr Jarupong.”The policy on minimum wage rise to Bt300 per day is aimed at helping grassroots people. We affirm that this policy will be equally implemented in every province,” Mr Jarupong promised.

Prime minister-to-be Yingluck Shinawatra on Wednesday said she welcomes opinions and comments from the business community on her Pheu Thai Party campaign pledge to increase Thailand’s minimum wage to Bt300 per day as discussion on pros and cons was needed before implementation.

The private sector aired its disagreement with the planned daily minimum wage, branding it as only political campaign ploy to win votes from the electorate.

Ms Yingluck said all opinions and comments were welcome as her Pheu Thai Party is willing to discuss the matter with all stakeholders.

    “Pheu Thai is not rushing to increase the daily minimum wage without thinking about the negative impact and damages that may arise,”

she said, referring to the consequences of such an action. “I am confident that the issue can be discussed.”

Asked whether she is concerned that the plan to increase the minimum wage might not be put into practice, Ms Yingluck said, “As long as there is a will to do so, (we) must clarify to make it clear to the public.”

Thailand’s election-winning Pheu Thai Party announced after the July 3 election that it expects to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300 (US$10) as early as January next year and a minimum starting salary for university graduates of Bt15,000 (US$500) per month, as promised in its election campaign.

Meanwhile, Buri Ram Chamber of Commerce Chairman Weeradet Tangtrongwetchakit urged the new government to review the plan as it could negatively impact companies and other employers, making them eventually unable to afford employing workers and would be forced to reduce their number.

This would lead to unemployment, he said, adding that the increase of minimum wage should be done gradually, step by step, not leapfrogging in one action.

The government, on the other hand, should provide measures to support both employers and employees, he said.

An owner of a textile factory in Kalasin, Suk Yubomchu, said he wanted government to come up with measures to help enterpreneurs as higher wage could mean higher production costs which would burden them.

“If the government cannot help entrepreneurs, they then would be forced to close their factories,” he said. (MCOT online news)

Peaceful election positive for Thailand’s credit rating

    July 7, 2011
    Boris Sullivan

A peaceful transfer of power is a step towards reducing the political risk which has been a significant negative factor in Thailand’s country rating since 2006, according to Vincent Milton, Managing Director of Fitch Ratings Thai office.

The prolonged turmoil resulted in a downgrade in the country’s ratings in April 2009, so an actual easing in political risk could be a positive rating factor for Thailand.If the overall political climate improves for a sustained period, consumer and business confidence should continue to recover, barring any external shocks.

This could lead to higher investment and stronger economic growth in the medium term, he said.A robust financial and corporate sector, the government’s fiscal stabilisation and the country’s strong eternal finances are key rating strengths for Thailand.Nonetheless, Fitch will need to see some detail on the new government’s fiscal and broader economic programme to see how this will impact inflation and how the political divisions are bridged in the next few months.

Thailand’s financial sector has so far remained resilient in response to the global financial crisis and domestic political instability. However, a jump in government expenditures could heighten inflationary risks resulting in further pressure on credit quality in the banking system.Fitch views that weakening origination standards in corporate and retail portfolios and concentration risks in corporate lending as well as higher funding costs could pose medium term risks. Strong capital, reserve coverage and profitability should help offset these to some extent.

Also, stricter prudential measures and more restrictive monetary policy settings by the Bank of Thailand could help.Thailand’s credit rating by Fitch is BBB+ while its rating of the local currency long-term senior debts is A- which means stability. MCOT online news

via Fitch Ratings views Thailand’s peaceful election as positive for country’s credit rating.

Director of the Bank of Thailand’s Domestic Economy Department Methee Supapong suggests that the increase to the daily minimum wage, to 300 baht as proposed by the new government, be gradual. He adds that it will have to be approved by the tripartite committee representing the state, employers, and employees, before implementation.

He noted that increasing the wage to 300 baht at once could greatly affect inflation, and that it would be difficult to implement.

Methee suggested that the new government focus on investing in infrastructure projects, as the lack of proper infrastructure is restricting the nation’s development and economic prosperity.

Regarding the new government’s desire to keep policy interest rates low, the director said the most urgent task for his agency is to keep inflation at a level favorable to long-term economic growth.

Thailand to raise minimum wage to Bt300 early next year

July 6, 2011
Boris Sullivan

Thailand’s election-winning Pheu Thai Party announced Wednesday that it expects to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300, or US$10 as early as January next year, as promised in its election campaign.

Pheu Thai Party Secretary-General Jarupong Ruangsuwan made the announcement amid growing public attention to the implementation of the partys economic policy after it announced its plan to form a new government with four smaller parties for a total of 299 votes in parliament.
contruction workers Bangkok

Pheu Thai Party announced Wednesday that it expects to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day and starting a minimum salary for new graduates from Bt15,000 per month, campaign promises which are believed to have drawn a large number of votes for the party in Sunday’s election.Mr Jarupong said the Pheu Thai-led government will raise the minimum salary per month to Bt15,000 $500 for civil servants and state enterprise employees this October, while a minimum daily wage hike is expected to begin in January 2012, as the government must talks with the private sector first.

The wage increase will be put into effect after the government creates better understanding on the matter with the private sector and finds appropriate solutions for them such as a corporate income tax reduction and provision of new export markets, according to Mr Jarupong.”The policy on minimum wage rise to Bt300 per day is aimed at helping grassroots people. We affirm that this policy will be equally implemented in every province,” Mr Jarupong promised.

via New government set to raise daily minimum wage to Bt300 early next year.

Previously, The daily minimum wage in Bangkok and surrounding areas has been raised to 215 baht.

The raise, which amounts to an increase of 6.7% on average, was considered a big jump in jan. 2011

The increase took the average minimum wage to 176.3 baht a day, said Somkiat Chayasriwong, the permanent secretary for labour and chairman of the wage committee.

Mr Somkiat attributed the raise to the government’s policy to reduce disparity in society.

The Social Security Office says about 2 million Thai workers and 2 million migrant workers will benefit from the increase.

The raise for Thai workers adds more than 6.92 billion baht to the national payroll, while the increase for migrant workers adds up to more than 7.78 billion baht.

The increase will boost the purchasing power of the 4 million workers by 14.69 billion baht.

The increase of 17 baht in the minimum wage in Phuket, from 204 baht to 221 baht, is the highest in the country.

The minimum wages in Bangkok and nearby provinces were put on an equal footing of 215 baht a day.

The minimum wage in Bangkok and Samut Prakan was raised by nine baht from 206 baht. In Nakhon Pathom, Pathum Thani, Samut Sakhon and Nonthaburi, it was increased by 10 baht from 205 baht.

The size of the work force in Thailand now exceeds 38.24 million (2009 est.), with the majority of the workforce under 35 years of age. Each year about 800,000 people join this force. Many standard labor practices apply, including mandatory severance packages, and overtime payments for work in excess of

The minimum wage in Thailand is currently 206 baht per day in Bangkok and slightly less in the provinces. While not the lowest labor market in the region, Thailand’s workforce is among the most cost-efficient in the world, as they have earned a reputation for diligence and adaptability.

2010 Minimum Daily Wage
Baht Area
206 Bangkok and Samut Prakan
205 Nakorn Pratom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Sakhon
204 Phuket
184 Chonburi and Saraburi
181 Ayutthaya
180 Chachoengsao
178 Rayong
173 Nakhon Ratchasima, Pang-nga and Ranong
171 Chiang Mai
170 Krabi, Prachinburi and Lopburi
169 Kanchanaburi
168 Petchaburi
167 Chantaburi and Ratchaburi
165 Singhaburi and Angthong
164 Prachaub Khiri Khan
163 Loei, Samut Songcram and Sa Kaeo
162 Trang
161 Songkhla
160 Chumporn, Trat, Nakhon Nayok, Narathiwat, Yala, Lamphun and Ubon Ratchatani
159 Nakhon Si Thammarat, Pattani, Pattalung, Satun,Surat Tthani, Nong Khai and Udon Thani
158 Kamphaeng Phet, Chai Nnat, Nakhon Sawan, Suphanburi and Uthai Thani
157 Kalasin, Khon Kaen, Chaing Rai, Buri Ram, Yasothon, Roi-et and Sakhon Nakhon
156 Chaiyaphum, Lampang and Nong Bua Lamphoo
155 Nakhon Phanom, Phetchabun, Mukgdahan and Amnat Charoen
154 Maha Sarakham
153 Tak, Phitsanulok, Sukothai, Surin and Uttraradit
152 Nan and Si Saket
151 Payao, Pichit, Phrae and Mae Hong Son

Source: Ministry of Labor, as of January 2010

Thaksin Thinks and Pheu Thai does

June 16, 2011

Boris Sullivan

Thaksin’s youngest sister, Yingluck, 43, is know poll favorite bet on July 3, prompting fears that Thaksin will use her to seek revenge against his opponents when she becomes prime minister. Others worry that if she loses, or is somehow blocked, his supporters will turn to violent demonstrations, and Thailand will sink into another round of street riots and army crackdown.

A few days ago, the New York Times has a brief profile on Yingluck and some comments on the Thai election. Key excerpts:

Her campaign represents an extraordinary resurrection for Mr. Thaksin, the most divisive personality in the country. He was pronounced politically dead by many analysts after the coup, and he remains abroad to evade imprisonment for a corruption conviction, as well as a charge of terrorism for his role in backing the red-shirt demonstrations.

“I think very simply Thaksin has made this election about him,” said Chris Baker, a British analyst of Thai politics who has written a biography of Mr. Thaksin. “I think he did it not just by moving in Yingluck but also by the statement on the election posters: ‘Thaksin thinks and the party does.’ ”
Thaksin thinks and Pheu Thai does

Thaksin thinks and Pheu Thai does: the message couldn't possibly be clearer

…
Analysts say that rather than resolving the conflict, the election is likely to lead to more confrontations, either in Parliament, in the streets or through military intervention. The rapid rise and fall of governments in recent years, followed by protests and violence, has demonstrated that neither side is prepared to accept electoral defeat.

“We are in the middle of change of historic proportions in Thai political society, and a change that will take a long time to work through,” Mr. Baker said. “I’m talking 10 years, that sort of time frame. Along that way there are going to be various crises and various negotiations.”

More:
New York Times on Yingluck and Thai election

Puea Thai, which translates as “For Thais”, flew in its most potent speakers for the rally, masters of the spicy mix of entertainment and outrage that are typical of Thai politics. But the biggest cheer was kept for Yingluck Shinawatra. With her telegenic good looks and powerful political support, Yingluck Shinawatra is shaking up Thailand’s first parliamentary election since a wave of political violence last year.

Thaksin’s youngest sister, Yingluck, 43, may win on July 3, prompting fears that Thaksin will use her to seek revenge against his opponents when she becomes prime minister in a coalition government. Others worry that if she loses, or is somehow blocked .

Thaksin was first elected in 2001, and brought a significant change to Thai politics. Though wealthy himself, he implemented populist policies, such as inexpensive universal healthcare that clearly benefited the poor. He also showed Thailand’s working classes that, in a real democracy, if they united they could elect a politician who responded to their concerns, which had never happened before in Thai politics.

In a recent interview with the Bangkok Post, Yingluck confirmed there will be an amnesty under her government if she wins the elections

What should the amnesty law be like?

An amnesty law is one of the components making up the reconciliation model. If it comes to pass that an amnesty law is needed, everyone must be pardoned, not just a single individual. We must hold fast to the legal principle that everyone is treated equally.

…/…

You wouldn’t deny then that your brother Thaksin Shinawatra is the real purpose of the amnesty law?

Don’t say that he is the goal. If Thaksin is to receive an amnesty, he will get it along with everyone else. My goal is to work for everyone, not just for one individual.

I want to apply equal justice for everyone. If anyone receiving injustice gets an amnesty, Thaksin will get it as well. It is not about targeting Thaksin as the main goal.

It is just not true because I want to solve problems for the people, and if we have the chance to form the government, people’s problems are the priority

Wine Wealth Seminar at Royal Cliff Hotel

The Fine Wine Wealth Creation Program–a free seminar at the Royal Cliff Hotel July 20–features guest speaker Gavin Saffer, director of Premier Cru, a Europen fine-wine investment house.
Bordeaux wines are respected as one of the world’s most consistently best vintages.  Indeed, the reputation top French labels depends on continuously high-quality yields. For the past 30 years, investments in fine wine have reportedly consistently out-performed commoditites, equities, property and gold.
An 18 percent annual growth has been the norm and is set to continue with good management and the expected high quality of the 2010 vintage (now being bottled after one year in barrels). While demand increases, production quantities remain unchanged. Consequently, investment values rise every time a bottle is opened.
Co-sponsored by Bangkok based EMM Consulting Co. Ltd., the July 20 seminar at the Royal Cliff provides a unique opportunity to gain insight into the story of appellation d’origine controlee fine wines such as Chateau Lafite Rothschild; Latour and Margaux .
Storage of your fine wine investment is of paramount importance and Premier Cru Investments’ wine cellars are as elite as their wines. In a disused slate mine in the Wiltshire countryside of UK, neighbours include  HRH Queen Elizabeth of England and two of the richest men in the world, Microsoft’s Bill Gates and Lord Andrew Webber.
For reservations at the seminar (limited to 50) email: wine@emmconsultancy.com or telephone 088 208 1318.  Complimentary refreshments will be served.
pattayatoday | No comments
21 Jul 2011
Business News • Thailand News
Thailand to raise minimum wage to Bt300

Keeping its campaign promise, the Pheu Thai Party plans to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300 (US$10).
Jarupong Ruangsuwan, Pheu Thai secretary-general, made the announcement amid growing public attention to the implementation of the party’s economic policy after it announced plans to form a new government with four smaller parties for a total of 299 votes in parliament.

In addition to the 300 baht minimum wage proposal, Pheu Thai earlier put forward a  minimum starting salary of Bt15,000 per month for new graduates. Such campaign promises are believed to have swayed a large number of votes for the party. Jarupong said the new government will raise the minimum salary per month to Bt15,000 (US$500) for civil servants and state enterprise employees this October; the minimum daily wage hike is expected to begin in January 2012.
Final decisions will be made following discussions with the private sector concerning wage hikes, corporate income tax reductions, and provisions for new export markets, according to Jarupong.
Previously, the daily minimum wage in Bangkok and surrounding areas was raised to 215 baht. That 6.7 percent increase was considered a big jump in January 2011.
Somkiat Chayasriwong, permanent secretary for labour and chairman of the wage committee, attributed the wage raise to the government’s policy to reduce disparity in society. The Social Security Office says about 2 million Thai workers and 2 million migrant workers will benefit from the increase.
The wage increase for Thais adds more than 6.92 billion baht to the national payroll, while the increase for migrant workers adds up to more than 7.78 billion baht. The aggregate increase will boost the purchasing power of the 4 million workers by 14.69 billion baht.
In Phuket, the increase of 17 baht in the minimum wage from 204 baht to 221 baht is the highest in the country. Minimum wages in Bangkok and nearby provinces were put on an equal footing of 215 baht a day.
The minimum wage in Bangkok and Samut Prakan was raised by nine baht from 206 baht. In Nakhon Pathom, Pathum Thani, Samut Sakhon and Nonthaburi, it was increased by 10 baht from 205 baht.
The size of the work force in Thailand now exceeds 38.24 million (2009 est.), growing by about 800,000 each year; the majority of workers are under 35 years of age.
While not the lowest-cost labor market in the region, Thailand’s workforce is among the most cost-efficient in the world, as they have earned a reputation for diligence and adaptability

OVERCOMPLICATED TRADING

Human tends to over-complicate things. It is in our nature to try and improve what we have but most of the time we overcomplicated things and forget about the simple solution.

In my previous post, I posted a chart of a basic system. It consist of candle stick chart, moving average and macd. Only 3 indicators and it is a very simple system rite?

The answer is, it is not so simple actually. Candle stick alone tell you 4 things that is, open, close, high and low price. MA tells you direction of trend, entry point, start and end of trend. Macd tell you trend, entry point, reversal point.

From only 3 indicators there are actually 11 information cramp into that small chart. Too much info and decision making is a hard job. Though i filter comments, no one has actually ask about the amount of information on chart. It seems people can accept 11 information at once. Can you manage 11 input at once and make a decision out of it??

Trading is actually much simpler. It is actually possible to make profit with only 1 information. Believe it or not??

BP to Pay $25 Million as Penalty for Alaskan Oil Pipeline Spill in 2006

On May 3, BP Exploration Alaska, Inc. made an agreement to pay $25 million as a penalty to Alaska.  This penalty came to BP as a result of spilling more than 5,000 barrels of crude oil from its pipelines on Alaska’s North Slope in 2006. About $20 million of the fee that BP is required to pay will go to Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, and the remaining amount will be put into the US Treasury.
The cause of the spill was corrosion of BP’s pipeline.  The Alaskan government filed suit against BP in Anchorage federal court in March 2009 for inadequate maintenance.
Representation for BP was given by Randal Buckendorf, chief counsel, as well as outside counsel Carol Dinkins, who is from Vinsen & Elkins Houston office.
According to Ignacia Moreno, assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s Environment and Natural Resources Division, “This penalty should serve as a wake-up call to all pipeline operators that they will be held accountable for the safety of their operations…”
It has already cost BP $200 million to replace the leaky pipelines, and according to the settlement yesterday, it is now required to develop a program that is system-wide to manage the integrity of its 1,600 miles of pipeline on the North Slope of Alaska, which will cost about $60 million more.
Since the spill in 2006, BP also paid a criminal fine of $20 million after pleading guilty in 2007 to a misdemeanor violation of the Clean Water Act.

China official plays down yuan shift

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Chen Jian on Sunday played down talk of a shift in the central bank's currency policy as well as mounting expectations of a rise in the yuan's exchange rate. Speculation that China might let the yuan resume its climb after a 16-month pause swirled after a change last Wednesday in the long-standing wording used by the People's Bank of China to describe its currency stance.



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China official plays down yuan shift

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Chen Jian on Sunday played down talk of a shift in the central bank's currency policy as well as mounting expectations of a rise in the yuan's exchange rate.

Speculation that China might let the yuan resume its climb after a 16-month pause swirled after a change last Wednesday in the long-standing wording used by the People's Bank of China to describe its currency stance.

In its third quarter monetary policy report, the central bank failed to refer to keeping the yuan "basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level" when discussing the outlook for the exchange rate.

Asked whether the PBOC was heralding a return to the gradual appreciation of the yuan against the dollar seen from July 2005-July 2008, Chen told Reuters: "I don't think the central bank meant to say that."

Chen, however, said the yuan should reflect movements in major international currencies, which was also part of the PBOC's policy formulation.

China is coming under growing international pressure to let the yuan rise. Its manufacturers have been gaining market share at the expense of rivals in countries whose currencies have risen against the falling dollar, to which the yuan is pegged.

But, speaking on the sidelines of a forum, Chen said his ministry was not worried about rising appreciation expectations.

Turning to China's trade, Chen said there was only a small chance that exports would resume year-on-year growth by the end of 2009.

Many private economists, by contrast, expect positive growth in November or December because of the low base of comparison in 2008. Exports in October were 13.8 percent lower than a year earlier.

Chen also said a leap in China's trade surplus to $24 billion in October from $12.9 billion in September did not constitute a new trend.

(Reporting by Aileen Wang and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Alex Richardson)

(c) Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.

No double-dip US recession

The pace of the recovery in the US economy remains sluggish but Mr Strauss-Kahn does not believe there will be a double-dip recession. -- PHOTO: AFP

THE International Monetary Fund's managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said on Friday the pace of the recovery in the US economy remains sluggish but he does not believe there will be a double-dip recession.

He also said China's economic stimulus is helping to rebalance its economy towards relying more on domestic demand but it still needs to let its currency rise over time.

In October, the IMF raised its US growth outlook to 1.5 per cent in 2010 but Mr Strauss-Kahn said that forecast could be on the pessimistic side.

'Our forecast has that, not only in the United States but also for the rest of the world, 2010 will be a year of recovery,' Mr Strauss-Kahn told a news conference in Singapore where he was attending an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meeting.

'I must say, in some respects, we had been a little pessimistic because growth has resumed a little earlier than expected, by one quarter or so.'

He said the dollar had remained resilient throughout the global crisis but most Asian currencies were undervalued and reiterated calls for the Chinese yuan to be revalued. 'China's economy in the coming years will be focused on domestic growth and the value of renminbi will have to be increased,' he said. -- THOMSON REUTERS

Obama under fire on trade as Asia-Pacific leaders meet

US President Barack Obama, left, shakes hands with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong before the gala dinner for APEC leaders in Singapore. Photo: AP

US President Barack Obama has come under fire from Asia-Pacific leaders for backsliding on free trade at a regional summit devoted to driving the world economy out of crisis.

"President Obama is facing severe political constraints that run counter to free trade," Mexican President Felipe Calderon said, complaining about US foot-dragging on full implementation of the NAFTA pact for North America.

"The cruel paradox is that within a global economy, what really kills companies is inefficiency and lack of competition. Therefore protectionism is killing North American companies," he said in a speech in Singapore on Saturday.

"So I think this has to do with the fact that the US government is under strong political pressure that really is not being counteracted from the political perspective" of the Obama administration.

The US Congress has turned even more sour on free trade after the worst economic crisis since World War II.

One landmark pact with South Korea is languishing and critics say the White House has done little to revive it.

The US economy is picking up but unemployment has breached 10 per cent and economic leaders, including the heads of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, warned in Singapore that protectionism could choke off recovery.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said controversial tariffs enacted by his government to shore up ailing industries were temporary and urged his regional colleagues to "do anything we can to refrain from protectionism in any sphere".

The warnings came as a two-day summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) forum began on Saturday.

Obama arrived later in Singapore to join the 20 other leaders, after a visit to Tokyo.

In a speech in the Japanese capital, Obama reaffirmed a US commitment to finally concluding the World Trade Organisation's Doha round of talks - a long-running bid to tear down barriers to global commerce.

And he said the United States was interested in an obscure trade pact that leaders say could become the nucleus for a massive trans-Pacific free-trade zone covering 2.6 billion people.

"The United States will also be engaging with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries with the goal of shaping a regional agreement that will have broad-based membership and the high standards worthy of a 21st century trade agreement," he said.

The TPP now involves Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore.

Australia, Peru and Vietnam have expressed interest in joining, and Obama's remarks were the clearest so far about Washington's plans.

"The US announcement is a significant statement of its intent to the Asia-Pacific region," Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean said.

"Importantly, it provides the critical mass essential for this initiative to go forward."

Obama meanwhile called for "balanced and sustained" growth around the world in the post-crisis phase, pressing Asian exporters including China to wean themselves off US consumers and build up their own demand.

His comments underlined a central theme of the APEC summit - that the world economy must be rebalanced so that voracious US consumerism is no longer the sole cylinder firing global growth.

Officials said the realignment was a main item of summit discussion prior to an evening dinner, when the leaders continued an APEC tradition by donning specially designed shirts reflecting the host nation's culture.

AFP