posted at 3:10 pm on July 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
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CNN’s latest look at the Republican primary fight shows a big move being made by the man who hasn’t made his big move yet. Mitt Romney remains in first place at 16%, but only within the margin of error, as a group of speculative candidates have crowded right behind him. Texas Governor Rick Perry finishes second with 14%, and that’s not all:
As Texas Gov. Rick Perry comes closer to jumping into the race for the White House, he’s also close to the top of a new national survey in the battle for the GOP presidential nomination.
A CNN/ORC International Poll released Friday indicates that 14% of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP pick Perry as their first choice for their party’s nomination, just two points behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s making his second bid for the White House.
Romney’s two point margin over Perry is within the survey’s sampling error.
Right behind Perry come Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani, both at 13% and both within the MOE, too. None of these close finishers have actually declared a candidacy, which means that 40% of survey respondents not only are dissatisfied with the current lineup, they’ve picked non-candidates in their stead. That’s not good news for Romney, whose high profile from the 2007-8 campaign means that the problem isn’t a lack of familiarity with the electorate. Only 14% declare themselves “very satisfied” with the field, less than half of those who are either not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with the field (34%).
Bachmann finishes at 12%, the last candidate in double digits. Tim Pawlenty only gets 3% of the survey respondents’ endorsement, falling behind Ron Paul, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich, which puts a lot of pressure on Pawlenty to score big in next month’s Ames straw poll. Curiously, when Rick Perry gets removed from the list of choices, Bachmann scores best, picking up three points to finish tied for second with Palin at 15%.
Among independents, there are some surprising results. Mitt Romney finishes third at 12%, where Giuliani and Perry tie for second at 14% — and Bachmann wins at 15%. Bachmann comes in third among self-professed conservatives at 13%, with Romney beating her at 16%, but getting edged by Perry at 17%. Among both groups, Palin comes in fourth place. Not surprisingly, Perry wins the South handily, 21% to the 13% for Romney and, er, Giuliani? Romney and Giuliani also tie for first in the suburban demographic at 14%, with Perry close behind at 13%.
Clearly, Perry will be a force if and when he enters the race. If he’s the last person in, he may find even wider support, because right now it appears that Republicans are still holding their breat
